Market Update: What’s Really Happening Right Now
As we move deeper into spring, there are a few important trends shaping the Canadian real estate market—and they’re worth paying attention to whether you’re buying, selling, or renewing a mortgage.
💸 Tax Refunds Are Becoming a Lifeline.
This year, more Canadians are relying on their tax refunds just to stay afloat.
A recent survey from EQ Bank found that 36% of Canadians are depending more on their refund than last year. While financial experts often say refunds mean you’ve overpaid taxes, the reality is different right now—many households are using that money to cover everyday expenses.
👉 What this means for real estate:
Buyers may be stretching their finances, and short-term cash (like refunds) could be helping with deposits, closing costs, or debt repayment.
🏡 Home Prices: Slight Drop, But Still Expensive
According to TD Economics, home prices are expected to dip slightly (about 0.3% nationally this year), with bigger declines in Ontario and B.C.
But here’s the catch:
Even with small price drops, affordability is still a major challenge—especially for first-time buyers.
👉 Bottom line:
Prices softening doesn’t necessarily mean homes are “cheap.” Many buyers are still priced out.
📉 Rental Market Shifting in Tenants’ Favour
Canada’s rental market is going through a noticeable shift.
Data from Urbanation and Rentals.ca shows:
- Average rent: $2,008 (down 5.3% year-over-year)
- 18 straight months of rent declines
- Increased incentives (free rent, perks, etc.)
In cities like Vancouver and Toronto, rents are continuing to fall, while vacancy rates are rising.
👉 What this means:
Renters have more negotiating power right now—but long-term demand is still expected to return.
📊 Economy & Jobs: Mixed Signals
Canada’s job market is sending mixed messages:
- Small job gains, but unemployment remains at 6.7%
- Wage growth is strong (up 5.1%)
- Weakness in trade-related industries
- Slowing population growth
The Bank of Canada is holding its key rate at 2.25%, citing economic uncertainty—especially around global trade tensions.
👉 Translation:
We’re not in a downturn—but we’re not in a strong growth phase either.
🏠 Mortgage Renewals: A Growing Pressure Point
Many homeowners are heading into mortgage renewals with concern.
A survey from TD Bank found:
- 67% feel uneasy about renewing
- 56% expect to cut spending
- 39% may dip into savings
Most borrowers are choosing fixed-rate mortgages, favoring stability in uncertain times.
👉 Key insight:
Renewals are becoming one of the biggest financial stress points for homeowners in 2026.
⚠️ Breaking a Mortgage Could Be Costly
With rising bond yields, fixed mortgage rates are creeping up—and breaking a mortgage early is getting more expensive.
Why? Because penalties are based on posted rates, not the discounted rate you received.
👉 Important takeaway:
If you’re thinking about refinancing or selling early, the penalty could be much higher than expected—especially after the first 6 months of your term.
📍Local Market Snapshot (Victoria Area)
We’re starting to see early signs of momentum locally:
- Some multiple-offer situations returning
- Condos gaining traction
- Higher-priced homes slowing down
- Inventory and sales both lower than expected mid-month
👉 Interpretation:
The market isn’t booming—but it’s quietly tightening in certain segments.
👀 Buyers Are Coming Back (Slowly)
There are early signs that demand is rebuilding:
- 30% of buyers are more likely to purchase this year
- Most are actively saving and cutting spending
- Nearly half expect to buy with less than 20% down
👉 What to watch:
If confidence continues to improve, we could see more activity heading into late spring and summer.
If you have questions about your mortgage renewal, buying strategy, or timing the market, feel free to reach out—happy to help you navigate what’s changing.