The Saanich Peninsula Hospital & Healthcare Foundation is excited to officially launch our first-ever SPHHF Classic Car Raffle 2026. This is your chance to win a lovingly restored 1976 Triumph TR6 convertible, with proceeds supporting the Saanich Peninsula Hospital & Healthcare Foundation. Only 3,000 tickets are available. Tickets can be purchased here:
Order tickets for the Classic Car Raffle 2026 Raffle Nexus Tickets:
1 for $25
3 for $50
5 for $100 Draw date:
August 5, 2026, at 1:00 pm
Market Update: What’s Really Happening Right Now
As we move deeper into spring, there are a few important trends shaping the Canadian real estate market—and they’re worth paying attention to whether you’re buying, selling, or renewing a mortgage.
💸 Tax Refunds Are Becoming a Lifeline.
This year, more Canadians are relying on their tax refunds just to stay afloat.
A recent survey from EQ Bank found that 36% of Canadians are depending more on their refund than last year. While financial experts often say refunds mean you’ve overpaid taxes, the reality is different right now—many households are using that money to cover everyday expenses.
👉 What this means for real estate:
Buyers may be stretching their finances, and short-term cash (like refunds) could be helping with deposits, closing costs, or debt repayment.
🏡 Home Prices: Slight Drop, But Still Expensive
According to TD Economics, home prices are expected to dip slightly (about 0.3% nationally this year), with bigger declines in Ontario and B.C.
But here’s the catch:
Even with small price drops, affordability is still a major challenge—especially for first-time buyers.
👉 Bottom line:
Prices softening doesn’t necessarily mean homes are “cheap.” Many buyers are still priced out.
📉 Rental Market Shifting in Tenants’ Favour
Canada’s rental market is going through a noticeable shift.
Data from Urbanation and Rentals.ca shows:
In cities like Vancouver and Toronto, rents are continuing to fall, while vacancy rates are rising.
👉 What this means:
Renters have more negotiating power right now—but long-term demand is still expected to return.
📊 Economy & Jobs: Mixed Signals
Canada’s job market is sending mixed messages:
The Bank of Canada is holding its key rate at 2.25%, citing economic uncertainty—especially around global trade tensions.
👉 Translation:
We’re not in a downturn—but we’re not in a strong growth phase either.
🏠 Mortgage Renewals: A Growing Pressure Point
Many homeowners are heading into mortgage renewals with concern.
A survey from TD Bank found:
Most borrowers are choosing fixed-rate mortgages, favoring stability in uncertain times.
👉 Key insight:
Renewals are becoming one of the biggest financial stress points for homeowners in 2026.
⚠️ Breaking a Mortgage Could Be Costly
With rising bond yields, fixed mortgage rates are creeping up—and breaking a mortgage early is getting more expensive.
Why? Because penalties are based on posted rates, not the discounted rate you received.
👉 Important takeaway:
If you’re thinking about refinancing or selling early, the penalty could be much higher than expected—especially after the first 6 months of your term.
📍Local Market Snapshot (Victoria Area)
We’re starting to see early signs of momentum locally:
👉 Interpretation:
The market isn’t booming—but it’s quietly tightening in certain segments.
👀 Buyers Are Coming Back (Slowly)
There are early signs that demand is rebuilding:
👉 What to watch:
If confidence continues to improve, we could see more activity heading into late spring and summer.
If you have questions about your mortgage renewal, buying strategy, or timing the market, feel free to reach out—happy to help you navigate what’s changing.
The housing market in Sidney, the Saanich Peninsula, and Greater Victoria continues to settle, creating a more balanced environment for both buyers and sellers.
CMHC expects home sales to pick up in 2026, but activity is forecast to remain below historical averages as the economy grows slowly. Locally, this means more thoughtful buyers, steady demand, and fewer pressure-driven decisions.
More Choice for Buyers
Inventory levels remain elevated across Greater Victoria, including Sidney and Peninsula communities. This is giving buyers more options and time to make decisions. Prices are expected to stabilize in 2026, with only modest increases, as higher supply keeps strong price growth in check.
Well-located homes in established neighbourhoods continue to perform best, while entry-level prices are expected to remain relatively steady.
Rental Market Is Easing
Rental conditions in Victoria and surrounding areas have softened. Vacancy rates are higher, and rent growth has slowed significantly. This shift is improving affordability and giving tenants more flexibility. As the gap between renting and owning narrows, some renters may consider making the move to homeownership.
New Construction Slowing
New home construction across Greater Victoria is expected to slow, particularly condominium projects, due to higher costs and weaker demand. Purpose-built rental construction remains a key source of new supply, but even this segment is beginning to moderate as vacancy rates rise.
Population Growth Falling In Greater Victoria
Population growth in Greater Victoria has fallen to levels not seen since 2011. While more restrictive federal immigration policy and lower international migration were major contributors, so too was reduced domestic migration.
Bottom Line
For Sidney, the Saanich Peninsula, and Victoria, 2026 is shaping up to be a steady, balanced year. It’s a market that rewards good preparation, realistic pricing, and careful decision-making — a healthier pace for everyone involved.
From everyone at Holmes Realty Group, here’s wishing you a safe and joyful Holiday Season!
We are available for any of your Real Estate needs through the Holiday Season – Be sure to call us 250-656-0911 or e-mail: reachus@holmesrealty.com .
Michele, Mark & Eric – Holmes Realty Group – Coldwell Banker Oceanside.
You are invited to our Coldwell Banker Client Halloween Party, October 18th – 2:00 – 4:00 pm at Heritage Acres, 7321 Lochside Drive in North Saanich. Bring your kids, grandkids and your whole family. Everyone is welcome!
Lots and lots of fun to be had – Scavenger Hunt, Hot Dogs, Drinks, Candy Bags, Pumpkins to take home and a Train Ride! Train Rides start at 4pm.
Click on the link below to RSVP:
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/coldwell-banker-client-halloween-event-tickets-1723612965779
Hope to see you there!
Michele Eric and Mark
Holmes Realty Group
Coldwell Banker Oceanside
